Abstract This study investigated the spatial patterns of atmospheric circulation associated with surface air temperature variability trends between the Antarctic Peninsula and South America, during the austral summer (1979-2020). The first mode shows a positive score trend, with warming in northern Antarctic Peninsula and southern South America. This mode is mainly associated with the positive/neutral Southern Annular Mode and La Niña phases. There is an anomalous low pressure in the Southeast Pacific, a strengthening (weakening) of the polar (subtropical) jet and a strengthening and/or south/southwest displacement of the South Atlantic Subtropical High, which can prevent the passage of transient systems over the continent. In addition, there is a negative phase pattern of the South Atlantic Dipole, which contributes to the strengthening of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone convective activity. The second mode shows a negative score trend, with cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula/southernmost South America and warming between 10-40°S over South America. This mode is mainly associated with the spatial pattern of Central Pacific El Niño. There is a strengthening of the low-level jet and a strengthening of the western branch of the South Atlantic Subtropical High, all of which contribute to the suppression of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

Abstract The variability of Antarctic sea ice (ASI) has great potential to affect atmospheric circulation, with impacts that can extend from the surface to the middle and high levels of troposphere. The present study has evaluated the response of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to increased coverage in area and volume of ASI. Monthly data of air temperature, zonal and meridional wind and mean sea level pressure were obtained from two ensemble simulations performed with the GDFL/CM2.1 model, covering the period from July 2020 to June 2030. In general, the response of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to increased ASI showed that the climatic signal extended up from the surface to the high levels, propagating as a South Pole–Tropics teleconnection. The results show a general cooling of the southern troposphere, which for instance lead to the strengthening and northward shift of the polar jet and the southward shift of the subtropical jet and to an inversion from the positive to negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode. This study has great relevance for understanding the global climate changes in short term, by assessing the sensitivity of South Atlantic tropospheric circulation to extreme variations in ASI.

Abstract Global climate change is expected to increasingly affect climate-sensitive sectors of society, such as the economy and environment, with significant impacts on water, energy, agriculture and fisheries. This is the case in South America, whose economy is highly dependent on the agricultural sector. Here, we analyzed the sensitivity of South American climate to positive extremes of Antarctic sea ice (ASI) extent and volume at continental and regional scales. Sensitivity ensemble experiments were conducted with the GFDL-CM2.1 model and compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. The results have shown significant impacts on the seasonal regime of precipitation, air temperature and humidity in South America, such as a gradual establishment of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, the formation of the Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortex, the strengthening of Bolivian High and the presence of a low level cyclonic circulation anomaly over the South Atlantic Subtropical High region which contributed, for instance, to increased precipitation over the Southeastern Brazil. A northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone was initially also a response pattern to the increased ASI. Moreover, the greatest variance of the climatic signal generated from the disturbances applied on the high southern latitudes has occurred in the interseasonal timescale (110–120 days), especially over the Brazilian Amazon and the Southeastern Brazil regions.

Abstract This study investigated whether there are differences in the frequency and position of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric blockings between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with different representations of Antarctic sea ice extent in historical experiments. In the model with the greatest sea ice underestimation (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5) there is a weakening of the polar jet and an increase in 500-hPa height. These atmospheric conditions favor the predomination of simulated blocking frequency overestimations (autumn-winter), in relation to the observed (ERA-Interim). On the other hand, in the models with the greatest sea ice overestimations (Community Climate System Model version 4) and the better sea ice representation (Norwegian Earth System Model version 1) there is a strengthening of the polar jet and weaker positive differences in 500-hPa height in the Antarctic region. These atmospheric conditions favor a predominance of simulated blocking frequency underestimations (all seasons). All models present a good representation of the preferred blocking regions (South Pacific), although they do not represent the longitudinal location of the maximum frequency. In years of sea ice retraction (expansion), there is a predominance of a higher (lower) blocking frequency in the 60°S for all models and observed data.

Abstract This study aims to evaluate the position and intensity of the South Atlantic Subtropical High (SASH), related to sea ice extent (SIE) retraction and expansion in the Weddell Sea, assessing precipitation in South America. We assess the difference between atmospheric fields related to SIE (four most intense retraction events minus four most intense expansion events) in February. To this end, we used NSIDC SIE, ERA-5 reanalysis, CHIRPS precipitation, ICOADS SST, ONI/SAM indexes (CPC/NOAA). In the following month, under neutral ENSO and SAM, we observed tropospheric warming in the Weddell Sea and cooling in the mid-latitudes South Atlantic. There is a weakening of both the Weddell Sea circumpolar low and the high pressures between tropical and subtropical latitudes, in addition to the equatorward shift of the Ferrel cell. Therefore, SASH weakens and contracts, resulting in a reduction of the tropical Atlantic moisture supply to South America and negative precipitation anomalies in the tropical region - similar to the suppression pattern of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Our results suggest that SIE retraction (expansion) in the Weddell Sea may contribute to the weakening (strengthening) of the SASH and an early-ending (longer-ending) or drier-ending (wetter-ending) rainy season in tropical South America.